At last year’s CEIR Predict conference, Dr. Lindsey Piegza, Chief Economist and Managing Director at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., delivered a sobering yet deeply practical assessment of the U.S. economy in her presentation, The Global Economic Outlook: A Macroscopic Forecast. She noted that with inflation still above target, job creation slowing and AI beginning to reshape the workforce, exhibitions and events professionals were operating in one of the most complex economic environments in recent memory.

How Predict ready are you to read the signals others miss, outmaneuver economic headwinds and position your organization for durable growth when the landscape keeps shifting?

Let’s examine some of the essential takeaways from her session as we prepare to answer that question at the upcoming CEIR Predict Conference on 10-11 September 2026.

INSIGHT #1: The labor market was sending mixed signals though the headline numbers may have been misleading.

Dr. Piegza pointed out that monthly job creation had fallen from over 300,000 during the post-pandemic recovery to an average near 30,000 over the most recent three-month period. The unemployment rate remained low, but she also made clear that this figure obscured a more complicated story unfolding beneath the surface.

• Nearly 900,000 jobs disappeared over six months, alongside a near-equal contraction in the labor force, meaning the low unemployment rate may have been artificially suppressed.
• Long-term unemployment accounted for 25% of jobless workers and continued claims were at a multi-year high. Among recent college graduates, the unemployment rate had climbed to nearly 9%.
• Wage growth, while still solid at around 4%, was moderating from earlier peaks, signaling that labor demand was cooling even if it hadn’t collapsed.

TAKEAWAY: For event professionals, a softer labor market means both attendees and exhibitors may be navigating leaner organizational budgets and greater uncertainty about staffing and travel approvals.

INSIGHT #2: Consumers were still spending, but the cracks were showing.

Consumer spending had remained resilient on the surface as it was supported by wage growth, residual savings and wealth transfers. But Dr. Piegza described a consumer base under genuine and growing strain, with behavioral shifts that event organizers should be paying close attention to.

• Outstanding credit card balances had surpassed $1.2 trillion, with a growing share of consumers – particularly younger ones – engaging in “binge spending” (cutting back for months before making a larger purchase).
• Consumers had absorbed 30% or more in price increases across housing, groceries, transportation and healthcare over the past five years, compressing discretionary budgets.
• Consumer confidence and small business optimism had deteriorated significantly even as hard spending data remained nominally positive – a divergence that historically narrows, and quickly.

TAKEAWAY: Attendees and exhibitors are not a monolith: the widening gap between upper-income and middle- to lower-income segments demands tiered engagement and pricing strategies that reflect real divergence in spending capacity.

INSIGHT #3: AI was no longer on the horizon and was already reshaping the workforce.

Faced with higher input costs, elevated borrowing rates and compressed margins, businesses across sectors were turning to artificial intelligence as a primary cost-control lever. The pace and scale of AI adoption Dr. Piegza described should have prompted urgent attention from any organization that relies on skilled event talent.

• Fifty percent of businesses reported having already adjusted their employee base as a result of AI adoption in the past 12 months, and 80% said they planned on doing so going forward.
• External analysts projected that AI could eliminate up to 9 million jobs in 2025 alone and automate more than 30% of currently human-performed tasks by 2030.
• Workforce disruption would not be evenly distributed. Roles involving routine coordination, data processing and standard communications faced the highest exposure to automation.

TAKEAWAY: Organizations that proactively audit which roles will be most exposed, invest in upskilling and build workforce resilience plans will be far better positioned than those that wait for disruption to arrive.

INSIGHT #4: Stagflation – not recession – stood out as the risk that should shape strategic planning.

Dr. Piegza was direct: the probability of recession over the next six to nine months would be around 20% – real, but not the base case. The more likely and more insidious scenario would be stagflation, a prolonged period of slow, stagnant growth coupled with inflation that remains persistently above the Fed’s 2% target.

• With the U.S. carrying $37 trillion in debt and running nearly $2 trillion in annual deficits, the structural fiscal conditions would keep long-term rates elevated and constrain the Fed’s ability to stimulate growth.
• Rate cuts were likely but limited – at most two in the year – and the era of near-zero interest rate policy was definitively over. Businesses were advised to plan capital allocation around a sustained higher-rate environment.
• Tariffs, ongoing policy uncertainty and deteriorating business confidence were compounding the stagflation risk, making scenario planning around policy disruptions essential for any organization with international components or supply chain dependencies.

TAKEAWAY: A stagflationary environment demands more than cost-cutting because it requires strategic clarity about which investments, events and markets deliver durable returns when both growth and purchasing power are under simultaneous pressure.

Don’t Miss Out on this Year’s Predictions!

Sessions like Dr. Piegza’s are exactly why CEIR Predict is the annual gathering that executive leaders can’t afford to miss. Get the economic intelligence, strategic frameworks and peer conversations that will help you plan with confidence in an uncertain environment because at CEIR Predict, the industry’s leading economists and strategists don’t just describe the economic landscape – they show you how to navigate it.

Click here to learn more about this year’s CEIR Predict and secure your seat!

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